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Emerging issues and Poverty scenarios in XXI Century

Future Scenarios

Windows of Opportunity

The Nopoor project is devoted to exploring future solutions for poverty reduction. A multidisciplinary working group combines the local with the global approach to prognosis building. Researchers identify new threats and unforeseen situations, anticipating emerging issues. How can unexpected events open windows of opportunities, on the way towards a desirable future? Nopoor applies a variety of empirical techniques to come up with plausible future scenarios.

Emerging Issues and Coping Strategies

Nopoor integrates selected future drivers of change in poverty dynamics in urban as well as rural contexts, such as climate change, demographic trends, or the evolution of structures of power on a global level, into prospective scenarios, including access to education, health and life expectancy, discrimination, access to natural resources, insecurity, unemployment, and inequality. The strategic scenarios take into account the visions of the people about their own future.

The FP7 Cooperation Work Program considers that one of the ways to address societal challenges is to adopt a forward-looking analysis of potential new scenarios of poverty related with emerging issues.

The main objective of WP9 is to draw possible evolutions of these challenges, which will be based on well identified trends such as demography, recent experiences in the diffusion of technologies with examples in agriculture or digital devices. The recognition of the many factors that can bring “surprising futures” and the different ways they can combine across international scenarios is of crucial interest.

What is our work for this specific research ?

  1. To examine the contribution of new technologies to poverty reduction ;
  2. To take into account the consequences of demographic trends ;
  3. To identify the major facts possibly affecting the evolution of different scenarios in a medium and long-term perspective ;
  4. To extract useful lessons of previous dealings of shocks affecting poverty.

Research with a forward looking perspective

  • Understand new threats, dynamics and future of poverty in the long term
  • Consider predictable evolutions, and uncertainties
  • Develop proposals to policy makers which take into account future relevant changes

Research examples

Haiti: The impact of the earthquake
Analysis outlines the post-earthquake living conditions and debates the effectiveness of the international aid system. 

Mali: Gender, climatic shock and food security
How can education promote agricultural productivity and thus food security? 

Cross-Country Analysis: Are demographic trends leading to a new kind of poverty?
How can public policies manage windows of opportunities to obtain both societal as well as individual benefits?